Can Max Verstappen Still Win the 2026 F1 Championship? The Maths

Yes, Max Verstappen can still win the championship on paper, and he has now won three times in a row. After winning at Sepang and in the Singapore sprint, he won the Singapore Grand Prix from pole on 11 October 2026. He has 221 points. Kimi Antonelli finished third and leads on 340, with 150 points left. If Max wins all six remaining Grands Prix, he finishes on 371, and Antonelli must score 30 or fewer.

What changed at the Singapore Grand Prix?

Max cut the gap by 10 points and kept his perfect run alive. He won from pole and led from start to finish, 7.335 seconds ahead of Charles Leclerc, on his 250th Grand Prix start. Antonelli was third, 24.573 seconds back. Lewis Hamilton finished sixth. George Russell started 19th after an engine penalty and recovered to ninth.

Over the whole weekend, Max scored 33 of the 33 points available to one driver. Saturday's sprint win is now official, with Hamilton keeping second.

Max's ceiling still has not moved: it stays at 371, because he won both Singapore races. Antonelli's 20 points for the weekend came out of the leader's budget, which fell from 50 before the weekend to 30. The gap fell from 132 to 119.

The win was also a milestone: Marina Bay was the last circuit from the 2025 calendar where Max had never won. Our Verstappen Singapore stats breakdown covers that record.

Where do the standings stand after Singapore?

Antonelli leads Russell by 102 points and Max by 119. Those figures are the official standings after round 17. The last column shows how many more points each rival could score and still finish below Max if he hits his 371 ceiling.

The Grand Prix win lifted Max from fifth to fourth, past Leclerc. He is 8 points behind Hamilton in third.

If Max wins everything, the best anyone else can do is second in all six races, which is worth 108 points. That takes Russell to 346, 25 short of 371. Antonelli is the only driver who can stop Max winning out.

How many points are left in the 2026 season?

One driver can still score 150 points. A Grand Prix win pays 25, and points run down to 1 for tenth, per Formula 1's guide to the Drivers' Championship. Six races remain, so a clean sweep is worth 150.

Sprints paid the top eight from 8 down to 1, and Singapore was the last of six sprint weekends on the sprint calendar, so no sprint points remain.

No other points exist. The bonus point for fastest lap was scrapped from 2025, and the Formula 1 Commission ruled out any change to the points distribution ahead of the 2026 rules.

What does Verstappen need to win the title?

Max needs a run of wins and a near-scoreless Antonelli at the same time. Three wins and three second places, the bottom row below, leave Antonelli about 1 point a race. Each win Max gives up shrinks Antonelli's budget by 7 points.

In the lower rows, Max finishes second in some races. Another driver wins those and banks 25 points against their own budget in the standings table above.

For context, the leader has averaged 20 points a weekend so far. The top row asks him to score a quarter of that for the rest of the year.

Who wins if Verstappen and Antonelli tie on points?

The driver with more wins takes the title, then the driver with more second places, and so on down the order, according to Formula 1's championship guide.

Antonelli holds eight Grand Prix wins and three second places. Max holds two wins and four second places, per the 2026 race results and the official Singapore result. If Max wins all six remaining races, the wins are level at eight each and the second places decide a tie. That is why every budget in the ladder reads "no more than": it is the number that beats Antonelli outright, without relying on the countback.

When could Verstappen be mathematically eliminated?

After the United States Grand Prix in Austin on 25 October, at the earliest. Max is out if Antonelli outscores him by 6 points or more there. That pushes the gap to at least 125, and only 125 points are left.

A gap of exactly 125 would leave Max needing to win all five remaining races just to tie. That gives him seven wins at most. Antonelli would have at least eight, so he would win the countback.

Several results do it. Antonelli wins and Max finishes second or lower. Antonelli is second and Max fourth or lower. Antonelli is third and Max sixth or lower. Max survives Austin if he finishes no more than 5 points behind Antonelli, or ahead of him.

The worst case for Max is Antonelli winning while Max scores nothing, which leaves the gap at 144.

When can Antonelli clinch the 2026 title?

At the United States Grand Prix in Austin on 25 October, at the earliest. After Austin 125 points remain, so he needs a lead of at least 125 over every rival. He leads Russell by 102, so he has to win the race while Russell finishes ninth or lower. Hamilton must also finish fifth or lower.

If Antonelli wins in Austin, Max is out whatever happens to the others, because the most Max can then score is 18 for second. A tie at a 125-point lead would go to Antonelli, because none of the chasers could match his nine wins. If Antonelli does not win in Austin, the clinch waits until Mexico City on 1 November or later.

Which race could decide it?

Each row shows the points still available after that race. When Max trails by more than that number, he is out. If the gap exactly equals the points left, the countback decides.

Going to one of these races? Open that race's guide for session times, transport to the circuit and the eSIM plan that fits the trip. For the season overview, see our 2026 season eSIM guide.

The rest of the 2026 title race, driver by driver:

• When can Kimi Antonelli win the title?
• Can George Russell still win the title?
• Can Lewis Hamilton still win the title?
• Can Charles Leclerc still win the title?
• Can Lando Norris still win the title?

What does this maths leave out?

The numbers on this page count points and nothing else. They do not predict which car is fastest in Austin or Las Vegas, and they carry no odds. Penalties, disqualifications and cancelled races would all move the numbers, and we would rerun them if one happened. The full method sits in the methodology note below.

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