Who Can Still Win the 2026 F1 Championship? Every Scenario and Its Probability

Three drivers can still win the 2026 Formula 1 championship: Kimi Antonelli, George Russell and Lewis Hamilton. After the United States Grand Prix on 25 October, Antonelli leads on 365 points with 125 left. Russell (242) and Hamilton (241) can still pass him on paper, but only by winning all five remaining races while Antonelli scores at most a point. Built from this season's own results, the chance of anyone but Antonelli taking the title is under 1 in a million.

Who can still win the 2026 F1 championship?

Antonelli, Russell and Hamilton can still win the 2026 title. A driver is still in it while winning all five remaining Grands Prix, 125 points, would take him past Antonelli's current 365, per the official standings.

The two models are explained below. They disagree on the size of a tiny number and agree on everything that matters.

Every way the 2026 title can still go

There are exactly three outcomes, and each comes with one precise condition. Ties go to Antonelli, because he has 9 Grand Prix wins and neither rival can reach more than 8, per the tie rule in Formula 1's guide to the Drivers' Championship.

Nothing short of five wins works for either rival. Four wins and a second place come to 118 points, which leaves Russell on 360 and Hamilton on 359, both below the 365 Antonelli already has.

Russell's path needs Antonelli to fail to score almost every weekend. A single ninth place, worth 2 points, takes Antonelli to 367, which ties Russell's best and wins on countback. Hamilton's path is narrower still: one point for Antonelli ties them on 366, and Antonelli wins that tie as well.

How did we get the probabilities?

Both models use nothing but the 18 Grand Prix results of 2026, taken from the season results and checked against the official standings.

The replay model assumes each of the last five races looks like one of the 18 already run, picked at random. That gives 18^5 = 1,889,568 possible run-ins, and we played every one of them to the end, countback included. Because a replayed race keeps every driver's real result together, it also keeps the real links between them, such as Antonelli's retirement in the race Hamilton won.

That race is the only reason Hamilton appears at all. In round 7, Hamilton won and Antonelli retired, so replaying round 7 five times in a row makes Hamilton champion: 1 run-in out of 1,889,568. Russell's three wins came in races where Antonelli finished second, third and fifth, so no replay gives Russell the title.

The record model treats each race as independent and uses each driver's own 2026 rates:

Russell's title then needs his 1-in-6 win and Antonelli's 1-in-9 blank five times over: (1/6)^5 x (1/9)^5, or 1 in 459,165,024. Hamilton's needs (1/18)^5 x (1/9)^5, or 1 in 111,577,100,832.

Neither model knows anything this season's results do not show. Both are measures of how far the remaining paths sit from what has happened in 2026, not forecasts.

When will Antonelli clinch the title?

Antonelli will most likely clinch the 2026 title in Mexico City on 1 November. He needs to lead Russell and Hamilton by at least 100 points after that race, so it slips only if Russell wins with Antonelli 10th or lower, or Hamilton wins with Antonelli out of the points.

The record model puts a Mexico City clinch at 97.5%. The only ways to stop it are a Russell win with an Antonelli blank, (1/6) x (1/9), or a Hamilton win with an Antonelli blank, (1/18) x (1/9), which add up to 2.5%. The replay model is lower because round 7, Hamilton's win with Antonelli retired, is one of the 18 races it can replay.

Who will finish second in 2026?

Second place is the real fight left in 2026. Russell, Hamilton, Verstappen and Leclerc are within 9 points of each other, and the replay model gives four of them a real chance.

Verstappen sits fourth on points but finishes second about as often as Hamilton. Across the 18 Grands Prix he has averaged 12.0 points a race, more than anyone else behind Antonelli: Hamilton has averaged 11.9 and Russell 11.6. Oscar Piastri finishes seventh in every replayed run-in. Rows may not sum to exactly 100% because of rounding.

Who was knocked out in Austin?

Austin knocked out three drivers. Antonelli's win took him to 365, above the best possible totals of Max Verstappen (361), Charles Leclerc (358) and Lando Norris (336), per the official Austin result. Oscar Piastri was already out.

For the full title maths on each of the three still in it, see when Antonelli can win the title, Russell's chances and Hamilton's chances.

How many races are left in 2026?

Five Grands Prix are left, worth 125 points to a driver who wins them all, per the official 2026 calendar. Singapore was the last of six sprint weekends on the sprint calendar, and the fastest-lap point was scrapped from 2025.

What do these probabilities leave out?

The models know only what happened in the 18 races of 2026. They cannot see car upgrades, a change in reliability, weather, team orders, grid penalties or a disqualification, and they treat early-season and recent races alike. They are not betting odds. What they do show is how far each title path sits from anything this season has produced. The full method is in the methodology note below.

Lotsotravel is an independent travel eSIM provider, and the race guides above are our own. Following a driver rather than the maths? We have a 2027 trip planner for Antonelli, Russell, Hamilton, Verstappen, Leclerc, Norris and Piastri.