Can Max Verstappen Still Win the 2026 F1 Championship? The Maths

Yes, Max Verstappen can still win the championship on paper, and on Sunday he finally won a race. He took the Bahrain Grand Prix in Malaysia at Sepang on 4 October 2026, his first win of the season, and now has 188 points. Kimi Antonelli finished second and leads on 320, with 183 points left. If Max wins all seven remaining races and the Singapore sprint (worth 8 to the winner), he finishes on 371, and Antonelli must score 50 or fewer.

What changed at the Bahrain Grand Prix in Malaysia?

Max gained 7 points on the leader, and one rival dropped out of his way. He won from pole after a rain-delayed start, with Antonelli second, 2.3 seconds behind. George Russell was running third when his power unit failed with six laps left.

The race ran 55 of its 56 scheduled laps, well past the 75% distance that earns full points under the 2026 rules.

Max's ceiling did not move. He banked the 25 points his perfect run needed, so it stays at 371, but Antonelli's 18 came straight out of the leader's budget, which fell from 68 to 50. The earliest dates did not move either: Max can still be eliminated in Singapore, and Antonelli can still clinch in Austin at the soonest.

Where do the standings stand after round 16?

Antonelli leads Russell by 84 points and Max by 132. Those figures are the official standings after round 16. The last column shows how many more points each rival could score and still finish below Max if he hits his 371 ceiling.

Norris and Max are level on 188. Norris ranks fifth because he has two wins to Max's one.

If Max wins everything, the best anyone else can do is second in all seven races and the sprint, which is worth 133 points. Before Sepang that was 151, enough for Russell to pass a perfect Max. Now it takes Russell to 369, two short of 371. Antonelli is the only driver left who can stop Max winning out.

How many points are left in the 2026 season?

One driver can still score 183 points. A race win pays 25, and points run down to 1 for tenth, per Formula 1's guide to the Drivers' Championship. Seven races remain, so a clean sweep is worth 175.

The Singapore sprint adds 8 more. Sprints pay the top eight from 8 down to 1, and Singapore is the last of six sprint weekends on the sprint calendar.

No other points exist. The bonus point for fastest lap was scrapped from 2025, and the Formula 1 Commission ruled out any change to the points distribution ahead of the 2026 rules.

What does Verstappen need to win the title?

Max needs a run of wins and a near-scoreless Antonelli at the same time. Three wins and four second places, the bottom row below, leave Antonelli 3 points a race. Each win Max gives up shrinks Antonelli's budget by 7 or 8 points.

The leader's budget covers the Singapore sprint too, so a sprint podium eats 6 to 8 points of it. In the lower rows, Max finishes second in some races. Another driver wins those and banks 25 points against their own budget in the standings table above.

For context, the leader has 320 points from 16 rounds, 20 a weekend. The top row asks him to score about a third of that for the rest of the year.

Who wins if Verstappen and Antonelli tie on points?

The driver with more wins takes the title, then the driver with more second places, and so on down the order, according to Formula 1's championship guide.

Antonelli holds eight wins and three second places. Max holds one win and four second places, per the 2026 race results and the official Sepang result. If Max wins all seven remaining races, the wins are level at eight each and the second places decide a tie. That is why every budget in the ladder reads "no more than": it is the number that beats Antonelli outright, without relying on the countback.

When could Verstappen be mathematically eliminated?

After the Singapore Grand Prix on 11 October, at the earliest. Max is out if Antonelli outscores him by 18 points or more across the Singapore sprint and Grand Prix. That pushes the gap to at least 150, and only 150 points are left.

A gap of exactly 150 would leave Max needing to win all six remaining races just to tie. That gives him seven wins at most. Antonelli already has eight, so he would win the countback.

The worst case for Max is Antonelli winning both Singapore races while Max scores nothing, which leaves the gap at 165.

When can Antonelli clinch the 2026 title?

At the United States Grand Prix in Austin on 25 October, at the earliest. He needs to win the Singapore sprint, the Singapore Grand Prix and Austin, which takes him to 378 with 125 points left. He cannot clinch in Singapore, because Russell would still be within 150 points.

The chasers have some slack. A tie on points would go to Antonelli, because none of them can match his 11 wins in that scenario. If any of them scores more than the figure below across those three results, the clinch waits until Mexico City on 1 November or later.

With Antonelli winning all three, the most anyone else can add is 43 (second in the sprint and both Grands Prix). In practice, only Russell and Hamilton can delay an Austin clinch.

Which race could decide it?

Each row shows the points still available after that race. When Max trails by more than that number, he is out. If the gap exactly equals the points left, the countback decides.

Going to one of these races? Open that race's guide for session times, transport to the circuit and the eSIM plan that fits the trip. For the season overview, see our 2026 season eSIM guide. Sepang has run, and its guide will show the result once the official classification is published.

What does this maths leave out?

The numbers on this page count points and nothing else. They do not predict which car is fastest at Marina Bay or Las Vegas, and they carry no odds. Penalties, disqualifications and cancelled races would all move the numbers, and we would rerun them if one happened. The full method sits in the methodology note below.

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