Can Max Verstappen Still Win the 2026 F1 Championship? The Maths

Yes, Max Verstappen can still win the championship on paper. Before the Azerbaijan Grand Prix, as of 25 September 2026, he has 145 points. Kimi Antonelli leads on 292, with 233 points left. If Max wins all nine remaining races and the Singapore sprint (a short race worth 8 to the winner), he finishes on 378, and Antonelli must score 86 or fewer. He has won no races this year.

Zero wins in 14 rounds frames every number below. Each scenario that keeps him alive needs him to win most of the last nine. We update this page after each Grand Prix, so the numbers always match the latest formula1.com standings.

Where do the standings stand after round 14?

Antonelli leads George Russell by 81 points and Max by 147. Those are the official drivers' standings after round 14, the Spanish Grand Prix on 13 September. The last column shows how many more points each rival could score and still finish below Max if he hits his 378 ceiling.

Hamilton, Norris and Leclerc cannot hurt a perfect Max, because second place everywhere still leaves each of them short of 378. Russell is the one who can. Second in every race and in the sprint gives him 169 more points, for a total of 380. So even a flawless Max needs Russell to drop points somewhere.

How many points are left in the 2026 season?

One driver can still score 233 points. A race win pays 25, and points run down to 1 for tenth, per Formula 1's guide to the Drivers' Championship. Nine races remain, so a clean sweep is worth 225.

The Singapore sprint adds 8 more. Sprints pay the top eight from 8 down to 1, and Singapore is the last of six sprint weekends on the sprint calendar.

No other points exist. The bonus point for fastest lap was scrapped from 2025, and the Formula 1 Commission ruled out any change to the points distribution ahead of the 2026 rules.

What does Verstappen need to win the title?

Max needs a run of wins and a near-scoreless Antonelli at the same time. Five wins and four second places, the bottom row below, leave Antonelli about 6 points a race. Each win Max gives up shrinks Antonelli's budget by 7 or 8 points.

The leader's budget covers the Singapore sprint too, so a sprint podium eats 6 to 8 points of it. In the lower rows, Max finishes second in some races. Another driver wins those and banks 25 points against their own budget in the standings table above.

For context, the leader has 292 points from 14 rounds, about 21 a weekend. The top row asks him to score less than half that for the rest of the year.

Who wins if Verstappen and Antonelli tie on points?

The driver with more wins takes the title, then the driver with more second places, and so on down the order, according to Formula 1's championship guide. It has never decided a world title.

Antonelli holds eight wins. Max holds none, so he only wins a countback if he wins all nine remaining races. In the top row of the ladder, a 378-378 tie goes to Max. In every other row he finishes with eight wins or fewer, and the countback can favour the leader. That is why those budgets read "no more than": equal points would not be enough.

When could Verstappen be mathematically eliminated?

After the Bahrain Grand Prix at Sepang on 4 October, at the earliest. Say Antonelli wins in Baku and Sepang while Max scores nothing. The gap grows from 147 to 197, and only 183 points are left.

Max survives Baku whatever happens. The worst case after round 15 is a 172-point gap with 208 points still on offer. From Sepang onward, one bad weekend for him and one more win for the leader can end it.

When can Antonelli clinch the 2026 title?

At the Singapore Grand Prix on 11 October, at the earliest. He needs to win in Baku, at Sepang, and both the Singapore sprint and Grand Prix, which takes him to 375. If Russell scores zero in all four, Antonelli is 164 points clear with 150 left.

The chasers have a little slack. A tie on points would go to Antonelli, because none of them can match his 11 wins. If any of them scores more than the figure below across those four results, the clinch waits until Austin on 25 October or later.

Max drops out sooner, after Sepang at the earliest, because he starts 66 points further back than Russell.

Which race could decide it?

Each row shows the points still available after that race. When Max trails by more than that number, he is out. If the gap exactly equals the points left, the countback decides.

Going to one of these races? Open that race's guide for session times, transport to the circuit and the eSIM plan that fits the trip. For the season overview, see our 2026 season eSIM guide.

What does this maths leave out?

The numbers on this page count points and nothing else. They do not predict which car is fastest at Baku or Las Vegas, and they carry no odds. Penalties, disqualifications and cancelled races would all move the numbers, and we would rerun them if one happened. The full method sits in the methodology note below.

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