No. Max Verstappen can no longer win the 2026 championship, and the title is decided: Kimi Antonelli clinched it in Mexico City on 1 November 2026. Max was second in the Brazilian Grand Prix in Sao Paulo on 8 November and has 279 points. With 75 points left the most he can reach is 354, against Antonelli's 390. What he can still win is second place, and Sao Paulo stretched his lead in that fight to 17 points.
Key takeaways
- Max is out of the title race, and Antonelli is the 2026 champion after Mexico City.
- Max was second in Sao Paulo behind Lando Norris, with Red Bull team-mate Isack Hadjar third.
- He has 279 points, 17 ahead of Russell and 18 ahead of Hamilton, with 75 left.
- On this season's results, Max finishes second in 74.2% of replayed run-ins.
- A win, a third and a fourth in the last three races would lock in second.
What happened in Sao Paulo?
Lando Norris won the Brazilian Grand Prix, Max finished second, 14.6 seconds back, and Isack Hadjar was third, per the official classification. The Race's result has the same order and describes Max coming from the back to finish second.
| Driver | Points before Sao Paulo | Sao Paulo result | Points after |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kimi Antonelli | 380 | 5th (10) | 390 |
| Max Verstappen | 261 | 2nd (18) | 279 |
| George Russell | 250 | 4th (12) | 262 |
| Lewis Hamilton | 259 | 9th (2) | 261 |
| Charles Leclerc | 245 | 7th (6) | 251 |
| Lando Norris | 221 | 1st (25) | 246 |
Max outscored every rival for second except Norris, who won. His lead over Hamilton grew from 2 to 18, and Russell moved up to third, 17 behind.
Why can't Max win the title?
Max was already out before Mexico City. Third place in Austin on 25 October left him 129 behind Antonelli with only 125 points to play for, per the official Austin classification. Five more wins would have taken him to 361, and Antonelli already had 365.
How did the gap outgrow the points left?
A driver is out once the gap to the leader is bigger than the points still on offer. Max closed in on that line across two good weekends, then crossed it in Austin.
| Round | Race | Max's result | Gap to Antonelli after it | Points left after it | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Bahrain GP in Malaysia, Sepang | 1st | 132 | 183 | Alive |
| 17 | Singapore GP, Marina Bay | 1st in the sprint and the Grand Prix | 119 | 150 | Alive |
| 18 | United States GP, Austin | 3rd | 129 | 125 | Out |
| 19 | Mexico City GP | 1st | 119 | 100 | Out, Antonelli champion |
| 20 | Brazilian GP, Sao Paulo | 2nd | 111 | 75 | Out, Antonelli champion |
The Sepang figure comes from the official Sepang classification, and the Singapore figure from the official Singapore classification and the standings after round 17. Singapore was Max's first win at Marina Bay, and our Verstappen Singapore stats breakdown covers that record.
What is the highest Max can finish in 2026?
Second is the highest Max can finish, and after Sao Paulo he holds it by 17 points. A Grand Prix win pays 25 and tenth place pays 1, per Formula 1's guide to the Drivers' Championship, and three Grands Prix remain.
| Final position | Can Max finish there? | Chance, replaying 2026 results |
|---|---|---|
| 1st | No: Antonelli is champion | 0% |
| 2nd | Yes. A win, a third and a fourth guarantee it | 74.2% |
| 3rd | Yes | 16.1% |
| 4th | Yes | 6.0% |
| 5th | Yes | 2.9% |
| 6th | Only if Russell, Hamilton, Leclerc and Norris all pass him. Norris starts 33 behind | 0.7% |
| 7th | No: Oscar Piastri, on 152, can reach 227 at most | 0% |
The chances come from replaying the season: each of the last three races is treated as a repeat of one of the 20 Grands Prix already run, and all 8,000 combinations are played to the end with countback. The method, and the same numbers for every driver, are in our post on who can still win the 2026 title.
A win, a third and a fourth would guarantee second. That puts Max on 331. Russell, the closest driver behind him, could then reach 330 at most: second in the race Max wins and wins in the other two. Without a win Max cannot lock it in alone, because a driver who won all three would pass any total Max reaches from second places. The earliest he can make it certain is Qatar, since no result in Las Vegas can put him more than 50 clear.
Max also has the countback edge. He and Russell both have 3 Grand Prix wins, and Max leads on second places, 5 to 4, so in a tie on points Russell would need more wins than Max from here, or as many wins and more second places. Hamilton has 1 win and would need two more wins than Max just to draw level on wins.
No other points are left. Singapore was the last of six sprint weekends on the sprint calendar, and the fastest-lap point was scrapped from 2025.
His points also carry Red Bull, who lead McLaren by 17 for third in the constructors' championship after Sao Paulo. That fight is on can Red Bull still win the constructors' title.
Which races are left in 2026?
Three Grands Prix remain, from Las Vegas on 21 November to Abu Dhabi on 6 December, per the official 2026 calendar.
| Round | Race | Date | Points left after it | Race eSIM guide |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Las Vegas GP | 21 Nov | 50 | Las Vegas guide |
| 22 | Qatar GP, Lusail | 29 Nov | 25 | Lusail guide |
| 23 | Abu Dhabi GP, Yas Marina | 6 Dec | 0 | Abu Dhabi guide |
Going to one of these races? Open that race's guide for session times, transport to the circuit and the eSIM plan that fits the trip. For the season overview, see our 2026 season eSIM guide.
The rest of the 2026 title race, driver by driver:
- How Kimi Antonelli clinched the title
- Can Lewis Hamilton still win the title?
- Can George Russell still win the title?
- Can Charles Leclerc still win the title?
- Can Lando Norris still win the title?
What does this maths leave out?
The numbers on this page count points and nothing else. They do not predict which car is fastest in Las Vegas or Qatar, and the replay chances are not odds. The Sao Paulo figures match the official classification on formula1.com. The full method sits in the methodology note below.
Lotsotravel is an independent travel eSIM provider, and the race guides linked above are our own. Heading to one of the last three races? The box below has the plan for the next one. If not, it links to a 2027 trip planner for your driver.
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Frequently asked questions
Can Max Verstappen still win the 2026 F1 championship?+
When was Verstappen knocked out of the 2026 title race?+
Where did Verstappen finish in the 2026 Sao Paulo Grand Prix?+
What is the highest Max Verstappen can finish in the 2026 championship?+
Can Verstappen still finish second in the 2026 championship?+
Who won the 2026 F1 title?+
How many points are left in the 2026 F1 season?+
Methodology
How we did this comparison
This post calculates championship points only. The base is the formula1.com drivers' standings after round 18 (the United States Grand Prix, 25 October 2026), plus the official Mexico City Grand Prix classification on formula1.com (1 November 2026), which includes the stewards' post-race time penalties to Oscar Piastri, Franco Colapinto and Pierre Gasly, and the official Brazilian Grand Prix classification on formula1.com (8 November 2026), which matches the classification Autosport and The Race published first. Grand Prix win, second and third place counts for the countback come from the 2026 race results in the Jolpica F1 database, which our feed uses, plus the same Brazilian Grand Prix classification. Three Grands Prix remain, and no sprints.
Scoring follows the published 2026 rules: 25-18-15-12-10-8-6-4-2-1 for a Grand Prix and no fastest-lap bonus point. A tie on points is settled by countback: most wins, then most second places, and so on. Every scenario was computed by script. The final-position chances replay the season: each of the last three races is treated as a repeat of one of the 20 Grands Prix of 2026, and all 20^3 = 8,000 combinations are played to the end with countback. They describe this season's pattern of results, not a prediction.
We do not predict car pace, reliability or who will win any race. We do not model penalties, disqualifications, points deductions or cancelled races, and we do not use betting odds. We update this post after each remaining Grand Prix.
Sources & references
We verify carrier and regulator pricing directly from primary sources before publishing. Pricing is current as of the article's last update — always confirm rates on the carrier's site before you travel.
- Formula 1 Grande Premio de Sao Paulo 2026 race result — Formula 1
- Sao Paulo GP 2026 race results — Autosport
- F1 2026 Brazilian Grand Prix race result — The Race
- F1 2026 Mexican Grand Prix race result — The Race
- Max Verstappen survives almighty Lewis Hamilton pressure as Kimi Antonelli seals world title — RacingNews365
- Formula 1 Gran Premio de la Ciudad de Mexico 2026 race result — Formula 1
- Formula 1 MSC Cruises United States Grand Prix 2026 race result — Formula 1
- Formula 1 Singapore Airlines Singapore Grand Prix 2026 race result — Formula 1
- Formula 1 Gulf Air Bahrain Grand Prix in Malaysia 2026 race result — Formula 1
- 2026 season race results — Jolpica F1
- 2026 Drivers' Standings — Formula 1
- The beginner's guide to the F1 Drivers' Championship — Formula 1
- Formula 1 and FIA announce 2026 Sprint Calendar — Formula 1
- Fastest lap point to be scrapped in 2025 after latest FIA World Motor Sport Council meeting — Formula 1
- F1 Schedule 2026 — Formula 1
About the author
Lotsotravel Team
Edited by Cho Yin Yong and Mahmoud Halat
The Lotsotravel team writes guides and cost comparisons for international travelers. Carrier prices are read from each carrier's own page, eSIM prices come from our live catalogue, and posts list the sources they rely on and the date they were last updated.
Last updated: November 8, 2026