Mercedes can win the 2026 constructors' championship at the Sao Paulo Grand Prix on 8 November. They lead Ferrari by 126 points, and they clinch it there by scoring 3 or more points than Ferrari on the day. The drivers' title is already theirs through Kimi Antonelli, who sealed it in Mexico City.
Key takeaways
- Mercedes 630, Ferrari 504: a 126-point lead with 172 left.
- Outscore Ferrari by 3 or more in Sao Paulo and the title is won, with three races to spare.
- Mercedes win any tie on countback: 12 Grand Prix wins to Ferrari's 2.
- Replaying this season: a Sao Paulo clinch in 52.6% of run-ins, Las Vegas in 47.1%.
- Ferrari have outscored Mercedes in each of the last four races, which is why Sao Paulo is not a formality.
What do Mercedes need in Sao Paulo?
After Sao Paulo, three races and 129 points per team will be left. A Mercedes lead of 129 or more then puts the title out of Ferrari's reach, because Ferrari would need to win all three remaining races just to tie, and would still lose a countback with at most 5 wins to Mercedes' 12 or more.
Mercedes start with 126, so they need Ferrari's score in Sao Paulo to be at least 3 lower than their own. A few ways that plays out:
| Mercedes score in Sao Paulo | Example | Ferrari keep it open with | Can Ferrari get there? |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | One-two | 41 or more | No: 27 is the most left behind a Mercedes one-two |
| 33 | Win and 6th | 31 or more | Yes, with 2nd and 3rd (33) |
| 25 | Win, other car out of the points | 23 or more | Yes, with 2nd and 5th (28) |
| 15 | 3rd, other car out of the points | 13 or more | Yes, with 1st alone (25) |
| 0 | No points | Anything, even 0 | Yes |
A Mercedes one-two is the one result that settles it whatever Ferrari do.
What if Mercedes do not clinch in Sao Paulo?
The bar drops at every race. Las Vegas on 21 November settles it with a lead of 86 or more, and Qatar on 29 November with a lead of 43 or more.
| Race | Date | Lead Mercedes need after it | Replay run-ins where they clinch there |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sao Paulo GP | 8 Nov | 129 | 52.6% |
| Las Vegas GP | 21 Nov | 86 | 47.1% |
| Qatar GP | 29 Nov | 43 | 0.3% |
| Abu Dhabi GP | 6 Dec | Any lead | 0.0% |
In every one of the 130,321 replayed run-ins, Mercedes are champions by Qatar at the latest.
Why did Mercedes not clinch in Mexico City?
They would have needed a lead of 172 after the race and were never close. Mercedes went to Mexico City 133 ahead and left 126 ahead, per the official classification: Antonelli third and George Russell sixth made 23 points, while Lewis Hamilton second and Charles Leclerc fourth made 30 for Ferrari.
That fits a pattern. Across the season Mercedes have averaged 29.7 Grand Prix points a race to Ferrari's 23.3, but over the last five races it is 24.4 to Ferrari's 26.6. Ferrari scored more than Mercedes at Sepang, Singapore, Austin and Mexico City, per the season results. None of those gaps was bigger than 9 points, which is why the lead has barely moved.
How dominant have Mercedes been in 2026?
Mercedes have won 12 of the 19 Grands Prix, nine with Antonelli and three with Russell, and their two drivers hold the top spot and fourth place in the drivers' standings.
| Team | Points | Grand Prix wins | Grand Prix second places |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mercedes | 630 | 12 | 7 |
| Ferrari | 504 | 2 | 6 |
| Red Bull | 382 | 3 | 4 |
| McLaren | 365 | 2 | 2 |
Win and second-place counts include either car. Ferrari's side of the maths is on can Ferrari still win the constructors' title, and the full table is on who can still win the 2026 constructors' championship.
Which races are left?
Four Grands Prix, per the official 2026 calendar: Sao Paulo on 8 November, Las Vegas on 21 November, Qatar on 29 November and Abu Dhabi on 6 December. Each guide covers session times, getting to the circuit and the eSIM plan that fits the trip.
Lotsotravel is an independent travel eSIM provider, and the race guides are our own. The box below has the plan for the next race, or a 2027 trip planner to see the champion next year.
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Frequently asked questions
When can Mercedes win the 2026 constructors' championship?+
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Methodology
How we did this comparison
This post calculates constructors' championship points only. The base is the constructors' standings after round 18 (the United States Grand Prix, 25 October 2026) in the Jolpica F1 database, which include sprint points, plus the official Mexico City Grand Prix classification on formula1.com (1 November 2026): Mercedes 630, Ferrari 504, Red Bull 382, McLaren 365. Those totals match the formula1.com team standings after Mexico City. That result includes the stewards' post-race time penalties to Oscar Piastri, Franco Colapinto and Pierre Gasly. Per-race team scores and win counts come from the 2026 Grand Prix classifications in the Jolpica F1 database, plus the official Mexico City result.
Four Grands Prix remain. Each car scores 25-18-15-12-10-8-6-4-2-1, so a team can take at most 43 points from a race and 172 from the four, with no sprints and no fastest-lap point left. We break ties on countback, most first places by either car, then most second places, and so on, the same rule the drivers' championship uses.
The clinch chances come from a replay model built only from this season's results: each remaining race is treated as a repeat of one of the 19 Grands Prix run so far, picked at random with equal weight, and every team scores what it scored that day. All 130,321 possible run-ins are played to the end. Every figure was computed by script. We do not predict car pace, reliability, penalties or cancelled races, and we do not use betting odds.
Sources & references
We verify carrier and regulator pricing directly from primary sources before publishing. Pricing is current as of the article's last update — always confirm rates on the carrier's site before you travel.
- 2026 Constructors' Standings — Formula 1
- 2026 Drivers' Standings — Formula 1
- Formula 1 Gran Premio de la Ciudad de Mexico 2026 race result — Formula 1
- 2026 constructor standings — Jolpica F1
- 2026 season race results — Jolpica F1
- F1 Schedule 2026 — Formula 1
About the author
Lotsotravel Team
The Lotsotravel editorial team writes hands-on guides for international travelers. We test eSIMs on real devices in real destinations, monitor Canadian and U.S. carrier pricing weekly, and compare coverage across local network partners before we recommend a plan. Every comparison post is updated when carriers change their rates so the numbers you read here match what you would pay today.
Last updated: November 2, 2026