The drivers' title went to Kimi Antonelli in Mexico City, and the constructors' championship is now a two-team question: only Mercedes and Ferrari can still win it. Mercedes lead on 630 points, Ferrari are 126 behind, and a team can score at most 172 more. Red Bull and McLaren are out of the title fight and 17 points apart, so the race for third is the closest fight left.
Key takeaways
- Mercedes 630, Ferrari 504, Red Bull 382, McLaren 365 after Mexico City, with 172 points left per team.
- Mercedes win the title in Sao Paulo on 8 November if they outscore Ferrari by 3 points or more.
- Ferrari need 127 more points than Mercedes over four races. Their best four races against Mercedes this season added up to 47.
- Red Bull and McLaren arrived in Mexico City level on 355. Verstappen's win and a penalty for Piastri put Red Bull 17 ahead.
- Replaying this season's results: Mercedes champions in every run-in, Ferrari second in every run-in, Red Bull third in 81.1%.
Who can still win the 2026 constructors' championship?
Mercedes and Ferrari. Every other team's best possible total is below the 630 Mercedes already have. The table adds the official Mexico City result to the standings after Austin.
| Team | Points before Mexico City | Mexico City finishes | Points after | Behind Mercedes | Best possible total | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mercedes | 607 | 3rd, 6th (23) | 630 | Leader | 802 | Leads |
| Ferrari | 474 | 2nd, 4th (30) | 504 | 126 | 676 | Alive |
| Red Bull | 355 | 1st, 9th (27) | 382 | 248 | 554 | Out |
| McLaren | 355 | 5th, 13th (10) | 365 | 265 | 537 | Out |
Red Bull and McLaren were already out of reach before Mexico City: 252 points behind with 215 left. Racing Bulls, fifth on 108, are further back still.
When can Mercedes clinch the constructors' title?
Mercedes can clinch it at the next race. After Sao Paulo, 129 points will be left, so a lead of 129 or more settles it. Mercedes have 12 Grand Prix wins to Ferrari's 2, and Ferrari can add at most 4, so Mercedes win any tie on countback. That makes the target simple: outscore Ferrari by 3 or more in Sao Paulo. If that does not happen, the target in Las Vegas is a lead of 86, then 43 in Qatar.
| Clinch race | Date | Replay run-ins where Mercedes clinch there |
|---|---|---|
| Sao Paulo GP | 8 Nov | 52.6% |
| Las Vegas GP | 21 Nov | 47.1% |
| Qatar GP | 29 Nov | 0.3% |
| Abu Dhabi GP or never | 6 Dec | 0.0% |
The Sao Paulo number is close to a coin flip because of recent form. Mercedes outscored Ferrari by 3 or more in 10 of the 19 Grands Prix this season, but in none of the last four: Ferrari scored more than Mercedes at Sepang, Singapore, Austin and Mexico City.
Who finishes second and third?
Ferrari finish second in all 130,321 replayed run-ins. Red Bull are 122 behind them and McLaren 139, and neither team's best four races of the season, added together, gained even half of that on Ferrari: 47 points for Red Bull, 53 for McLaren.
Third place is the real contest. Red Bull and McLaren went to Mexico City tied on 355, and Max Verstappen's win opened a 17-point gap. Isack Hadjar added 2 in ninth, while Oscar Piastri crossed the line seventh but dropped to 13th, out of the points, with a 10-second post-race penalty.
| Team | Points | Finishes 1st | Finishes 2nd | Finishes 3rd | Finishes 4th |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mercedes | 630 | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Ferrari | 504 | 0% | 100% | 0% | 0% |
| Red Bull | 382 | 0% | 0% | 81.1% | 18.9% |
| McLaren | 365 | 0% | 0% | 18.9% | 81.1% |
Red Bull have outscored McLaren in 12 of the 19 Grands Prix, including each of the last five. A tie would go to countback, where Red Bull lead on wins, 3 to 2.
Which team has the best form?
On points per Grand Prix over the last five races, Red Bull have been the best team in Formula 1. They are also too far back for it to matter at the top.
| Team | Points per Grand Prix, season | Points per Grand Prix, last five |
|---|---|---|
| Mercedes | 29.7 | 24.4 |
| Ferrari | 23.3 | 26.6 |
| Red Bull | 19.1 | 28.8 |
| McLaren | 16.4 | 11.6 |
The last five are Baku, Sepang, Singapore, Austin and Mexico City. These are Grand Prix points only, from the season results and the Mexico City classification, so sprint points are not in them.
How did we get the probabilities?
The replay model treats each of the last four races as a repeat of one of the 19 Grands Prix already run, picked at random, and gives every team what it scored that day. That gives 19^4 = 130,321 possible run-ins, and every one is played to the end. Because a replayed race keeps both cars of every team together, it keeps the real link between team-mates.
It knows nothing this season's results do not show, so the chances describe how the remaining paths line up with 2026 so far, and are not a forecast. No sprints remain on the sprint calendar and the fastest-lap point was scrapped from 2025, so Grand Prix finishes are the only points left.
Which races are left in 2026?
Four Grands Prix, per the official 2026 calendar.
| Round | Race | Date | Points left per team after it | Race eSIM guide |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Brazilian GP, Sao Paulo | 8 Nov | 129 | Sao Paulo guide |
| 21 | Las Vegas GP | 21 Nov | 86 | Las Vegas guide |
| 22 | Qatar GP, Lusail | 29 Nov | 43 | Lusail guide |
| 23 | Abu Dhabi GP, Yas Marina | 6 Dec | 0 | Abu Dhabi guide |
Team by team:
- Mercedes: what they need in Sao Paulo
- Ferrari: 126 behind, what it would take
- Red Bull: out of the title, favourites for third
- McLaren: out of the title, 17 points off third
The drivers' side is on who can still win the 2026 drivers' title, where the fight is now for second.
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Frequently asked questions
Who can still win the 2026 F1 constructors' championship?+
When can Mercedes win the 2026 constructors' championship?+
What are the 2026 F1 constructors' standings?+
Can Ferrari still win the 2026 constructors' title?+
Who will finish third in the 2026 constructors' championship?+
How many points are left in the 2026 constructors' championship?+
Methodology
How we did this comparison
This post calculates constructors' championship points only. The base is the constructors' standings after round 18 (the United States Grand Prix, 25 October 2026) in the Jolpica F1 database, which include sprint points, plus the official Mexico City Grand Prix classification on formula1.com (1 November 2026): Mercedes 630, Ferrari 504, Red Bull 382, McLaren 365. Those totals match the formula1.com team standings after Mexico City. That result includes the stewards' post-race time penalties to Oscar Piastri, Franco Colapinto and Pierre Gasly. Per-race team scores come from the 2026 Grand Prix classifications in the Jolpica F1 database, plus the official Mexico City result.
Four Grands Prix remain. Each car scores 25-18-15-12-10-8-6-4-2-1, so a team can take at most 43 points from a race (a one-two) and 172 from the four, with no sprints and no fastest-lap point left. We break ties on countback, most first places by either car, then most second places, and so on, the same rule the drivers' championship uses.
The chances come from a replay model built only from this season's results: each remaining race is treated as a repeat of one of the 19 Grands Prix run so far, picked at random with equal weight, and every team scores what it scored that day. All 19 x 19 x 19 x 19 = 130,321 possible run-ins are played to the end, countback included. Every figure was computed by script. We do not predict car pace, reliability, penalties or cancelled races, and we do not use betting odds.
Sources & references
We verify carrier and regulator pricing directly from primary sources before publishing. Pricing is current as of the article's last update — always confirm rates on the carrier's site before you travel.
- 2026 Constructors' Standings — Formula 1
- Formula 1 Gran Premio de la Ciudad de Mexico 2026 race result — Formula 1
- 2026 constructor standings — Jolpica F1
- 2026 season race results — Jolpica F1
- Formula 1 and FIA announce 2026 Sprint Calendar — Formula 1
- Fastest lap point to be scrapped in 2025 after latest FIA World Motor Sport Council meeting — Formula 1
- F1 Schedule 2026 — Formula 1
About the author
Lotsotravel Team
The Lotsotravel editorial team writes hands-on guides for international travelers. We test eSIMs on real devices in real destinations, monitor Canadian and U.S. carrier pricing weekly, and compare coverage across local network partners before we recommend a plan. Every comparison post is updated when carriers change their rates so the numbers you read here match what you would pay today.
Last updated: November 2, 2026