Ferrari can still win the 2026 constructors' championship, but only on paper. They are 126 points behind Mercedes with 172 left, so they need to outscore Mercedes by 127 across the last four races, roughly 32 points a weekend. Nothing Ferrari have done in 2026 comes close to that pace of gain, but nothing rules it out yet either.
Key takeaways
- Ferrari 504, Mercedes 630: 126 behind with 172 left for each team.
- Ferrari need 127 more points than Mercedes over four races. A tie loses on countback.
- Their best single race against Mercedes this year gained 22. Their best four combined gained 47.
- Ferrari have outscored Mercedes in each of the last four races, by 26 points in all.
- Second place looks safe: 122 clear of Red Bull, and second in every replayed run-in.
What would Ferrari need to win the title?
A gain of 127 points on Mercedes in four races. The most Ferrari can gain in one race is 43, with a one-two while Mercedes score nothing, so three such races would do it, and anything less leaves a lot to make up.
A tie on points would not help. Countback goes to Grand Prix wins first, and Mercedes have 12 to Ferrari's 2. Even four Ferrari wins would leave them on 6.
| Ferrari's gain on Mercedes | What it means |
|---|---|
| 127 or more over four races | Ferrari are champions |
| 126 | Level on points, Mercedes win on countback |
| 47 | Ferrari's four best races against Mercedes this season, added together |
| 22 | Ferrari's best single race against Mercedes this season, at Silverstone |
The figures come from the 2026 season results and the official Mexico City classification. In the replay model, which repeats this season's races in every combination, Ferrari win the title in none of the 130,321 run-ins.
What do Ferrari need in Sao Paulo?
To stop Mercedes outscoring them by 3 or more. If Mercedes do, their lead reaches 129 with 129 points left and the title is settled. If Ferrari score more, the same, or no more than 2 fewer, the fight goes on to Las Vegas.
In the replay model that happens in 47.4% of run-ins. Mercedes outscored Ferrari by 3 or more in 10 of the 19 Grands Prix this season, and Ferrari stayed within 2 or ahead in the other 9.
Are Ferrari closing the gap?
Slowly. Ferrari have scored more Grand Prix points than Mercedes in each of the last four races, at Sepang, Singapore, Austin and Mexico City, by 9, 9, 1 and 7 points. That is 26 points in four races. Doing it again at the same rate would leave Ferrari about 100 short.
Mexico City was a good day for the team. Lewis Hamilton finished second, 0.799 seconds behind Max Verstappen, and Charles Leclerc fourth, for 30 points against Mercedes' 23, per the official classification. Hamilton is third in the drivers' standings on 259 and Leclerc fifth on 245.
Will Ferrari finish second?
Almost certainly. Ferrari lead Red Bull by 122 and McLaren by 139. Neither has had four races this season that added up to even half that gain on Ferrari: Red Bull's best four gained 47, McLaren's 53. Ferrari finish second in all 130,321 replayed run-ins.
Second becomes certain in Sao Paulo if Ferrari outscore Red Bull by 8 points or more and McLaren do not outscore Ferrari by more than 9. Either way the lead over both would be at least 130, with 129 left.
| Team | Points | Behind Ferrari | Best possible total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ferrari | 504 | 676 | |
| Red Bull | 382 | 122 | 554 |
| McLaren | 365 | 139 | 537 |
The rest of the table is on who can still win the 2026 constructors' championship, and Mercedes' clinch scenarios are on when can Mercedes win the constructors' title. Hamilton and Leclerc's own fights are on Lewis Hamilton's title page and Charles Leclerc's.
Which races are left?
Four Grands Prix, per the official 2026 calendar: Sao Paulo on 8 November, Las Vegas on 21 November, Qatar on 29 November and Abu Dhabi on 6 December. Each guide covers session times, getting to the circuit and the eSIM plan for the trip.
Lotsotravel is an independent travel eSIM provider, and the race guides are our own. The box below has the plan for the next race, or a 2027 trip planner to see Hamilton race next year.
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Frequently asked questions
Can Ferrari still win the 2026 constructors' championship?+
What do Ferrari need in Sao Paulo to stay in the title fight?+
Has Ferrari ever gained 127 points on Mercedes in four races this season?+
Will Ferrari finish second in the constructors' championship?+
How many points do Ferrari have in 2026?+
Methodology
How we did this comparison
This post calculates constructors' championship points only. The base is the constructors' standings after round 18 (the United States Grand Prix, 25 October 2026) in the Jolpica F1 database, which include sprint points, plus the official Mexico City Grand Prix classification on formula1.com (1 November 2026): Mercedes 630, Ferrari 504, Red Bull 382, McLaren 365. Those totals match the formula1.com team standings after Mexico City. That result includes the stewards' post-race time penalties to Oscar Piastri, Franco Colapinto and Pierre Gasly. Per-race team scores and win counts come from the 2026 Grand Prix classifications in the Jolpica F1 database, plus the official Mexico City result.
Four Grands Prix remain. Each car scores 25-18-15-12-10-8-6-4-2-1, so a team can take at most 43 points from a race and 172 from the four, with no sprints and no fastest-lap point left. We break ties on countback, most first places by either car, then most second places, and so on, the same rule the drivers' championship uses.
The chances come from a replay model built only from this season's results: each remaining race is treated as a repeat of one of the 19 Grands Prix run so far, picked at random with equal weight, and every team scores what it scored that day. All 130,321 possible run-ins are played to the end. Every figure was computed by script. We do not predict car pace, reliability, penalties or cancelled races, and we do not use betting odds.
Sources & references
We verify carrier and regulator pricing directly from primary sources before publishing. Pricing is current as of the article's last update — always confirm rates on the carrier's site before you travel.
- 2026 Constructors' Standings — Formula 1
- 2026 Drivers' Standings — Formula 1
- Formula 1 Gran Premio de la Ciudad de Mexico 2026 race result — Formula 1
- 2026 constructor standings — Jolpica F1
- 2026 season race results — Jolpica F1
- F1 Schedule 2026 — Formula 1
About the author
Lotsotravel Team
The Lotsotravel editorial team writes hands-on guides for international travelers. We test eSIMs on real devices in real destinations, monitor Canadian and U.S. carrier pricing weekly, and compare coverage across local network partners before we recommend a plan. Every comparison post is updated when carriers change their rates so the numbers you read here match what you would pay today.
Last updated: November 2, 2026