Who can still win the 2026 MotoGP championship? Eight riders. After the Indonesian Grand Prix on 11 October 2026, Jorge Martin leads on 355. Alex Marquez, eighth, has 172. With 185 points left over five rounds, Alex Marquez can still reach 357. Francesco Bagnaia, ninth on 166, is out. Two riders can drop out at Phillip Island on 25 October.
Key takeaways
- Martin leads Marc Marquez by 2 points.
- Bezzecchi is third, 46 back.
- Each of the five rounds left is worth 37 points.
- Fernandez and Alex Marquez can be eliminated at Phillip Island.
- Four more riders, Bezzecchi included, can be eliminated at Sepang.
- The title can be settled at Lusail on 8 November at the earliest.
Who can still win the 2026 MotoGP title?
Eight riders can still win the 2026 MotoGP title, because each one's best possible total is at least Martin's current 355. The table builds on the official standings after round 17.
| Rider | Team | Points | Behind leader | Best possible total | Grand Prix wins | Earliest he can be out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jorge Martin | Aprilia Racing | 355 | Leader | 540 | 1 | Lusail, 8 Nov |
| Marc Marquez | Ducati Lenovo | 353 | 2 | 538 | 6 | Lusail, 8 Nov |
| Marco Bezzecchi | Aprilia Racing | 309 | 46 | 494 | 5 | Sepang, 1 Nov |
| Ai Ogura | Trackhouse Aprilia | 259 | 96 | 444 | 1 | Sepang, 1 Nov |
| Pedro Acosta | Red Bull KTM | 258 | 97 | 443 | 1 | Sepang, 1 Nov |
| Fabio Di Giannantonio | VR46 Ducati | 245 | 110 | 430 | 1 | Sepang, 1 Nov |
| Raul Fernandez | Trackhouse Aprilia | 236 | 119 | 421 | 1 | Phillip Island, 25 Oct |
| Alex Marquez | Gresini Ducati | 172 | 183 | 357 | 1 | Phillip Island, 25 Oct |
| Francesco Bagnaia | Ducati Lenovo | 166 | 189 | 351 | 0 | Already out |
Bagnaia's 351 is 4 short of Martin's 355, so even ten straight wins could not lift him past the current leader.
How many points are left, and how is a tie settled?
185 points are left: a sprint and a Grand Prix at each of the five remaining rounds. A sprint win is worth 12 and a Grand Prix win 25, under article 1.28.5 of the 2026 regulations of the Fédération Internationale de Motocyclisme (FIM). The standard event schedule in the same rulebook (article 1.13) puts a MotoGP Sprint on every Saturday. motogp.com also describes the sprint as part of every Grand Prix weekend.
A tie on points goes to the rider with more Grand Prix wins, then more second places (article 1.28.7). Sprint wins do not count. That matters at the top. Marquez has six Grand Prix wins and Martin one. So Marquez wins a tie with Martin unless Martin wins all five remaining Grands Prix.
What does each long shot need?
Each of the five riders behind the top three needs to gain between about 19 and 37 points a weekend on Martin, and almost as much on Marquez. The first deadline arrives quickly.
Ai Ogura (259, Trackhouse Aprilia). Ogura is out after Sepang on 1 November if Martin outscores him by 16 or more across Phillip Island and Sepang, or Marquez by 18 or more. He can reach 444. He has one Grand Prix win this season and was second in the Mandalika sprint.
Pedro Acosta (258, Red Bull KTM). Acosta is out after Sepang if Martin outscores him by 15 or more over those two weekends, or Marquez by 17. His ceiling is 443. At media day on 22 October he said he wanted rain at Phillip Island, per motogp.com's report.
Fabio Di Giannantonio (245, VR46 Ducati). Di Giannantonio has the least room. He is out after Sepang if Martin outscores him by just 2 points over the two weekends, or Marquez by 4. In effect he has to match or beat both leaders at Phillip Island and Sepang to stay in.
Raul Fernandez (236, Trackhouse Aprilia). Fernandez can be out after Phillip Island. That happens if Martin outscores him there by 30 or more, or Marquez by 32 or more. He was second in the Indonesian Grand Prix despite two broken fingers from a sprint crash, per motogp.com. To reach Lusail alive, he must outscore Martin by 8 and Marquez by 7 across the next two weekends.
Alex Marquez (172, Gresini Ducati). The other Marquez needs the full 37 points at Phillip Island just to survive the weekend. He must win both the sprint and the Grand Prix, while Martin scores 2 points or fewer and his brother Marc 3 or fewer. If Martin scores exactly 2, a tie at the end would still go Alex's way on Grand Prix wins.
Which round could decide it?
The title cannot be settled before Lusail on 8 November. Each row shows the points still available after that round. A rider who trails the leader by more than that number is out. If the gap equals the points left, the Grand Prix countback decides.
| Round | Venue | Grand Prix date | Points left after it | What can happen | Getting there |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Phillip Island, Australia | 25 Oct | 148 | Fernandez and Alex Marquez can be eliminated. No clinch possible | Australia eSIM |
| 19 | Sepang, Malaysia | 1 Nov | 111 | Bezzecchi, Ogura, Acosta and Di Giannantonio can be eliminated. No clinch possible | Sepang guide |
| 20 | Lusail, Qatar | 8 Nov | 74 | Earliest clinch, for Martin or Marc Marquez only | Lusail guide |
| 21 | Portimao, Portugal | 22 Nov | 37 | Earliest clinch on paper for Bezzecchi, Ogura, Acosta and Di Giannantonio | Portugal eSIM, Europe guide |
| 22 | Valencia, Spain | 29 Nov | 0 | Final standings. Fernandez and Alex Marquez can only clinch here | Valencia guide |
Phillip Island is MotoGP's last visit to the circuit: the Australian round moves to Adelaide afterwards, per the motogp.com media day report. Sepang and Lusail are the same circuits our Formula 1 guides cover.
What would it take for a long shot to win?
A long shot wins only if both leaders collapse at once. Take Ogura, the best placed of the five. If he wins all ten remaining races, he finishes on 444. Martin would then need to add no more than 89 points over five weekends, and Marquez no more than 90. Both have averaged close to 21 points a weekend this season, about 105 over five rounds.
Ogura winning ten in a row is a scenario, not a forecast. The same arithmetic is why motogp.com's coverage, like its record-gap piece, frames the fight around Martin and Marquez, with Bezzecchi the third name.
What does this maths leave out?
The numbers here count points and nothing else. They do not forecast pace, tyre life, rain at Phillip Island or team orders, and they carry no odds. A penalty, an injury or a cancelled race would change them, and we would rerun them if one happened. The full method sits in the methodology note below.
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Methodology
How we did this comparison
This post calculates championship points only. The base is the official MotoGP world championship classification after round 17 (the Indonesian Grand Prix at Mandalika, 11 October 2026), cross-checked against the Crash.net standings table, which also marks the top eight as still in mathematical contention. Grand Prix win counts come from the official classification of every 2026 MotoGP race on motogp.com.
Scoring follows the 2026 FIM Grand Prix World Championship Regulations (article 1.28.5): 25-20-16-13-11-10-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 for a Grand Prix and 12-9-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 for a sprint. Five rounds remain, each with a sprint and a Grand Prix, so one rider can score 37 a weekend and 185 in total. A tie on points is settled by Grand Prix results only: most wins, then most second places, and so on (article 1.28.7). Earliest elimination assumes the rider scores nothing while one rival wins every race; earliest clinch assumes the reverse. Every threshold was computed by script.
We do not predict pace, tyres, weather, team orders or who wins any race. We do not model penalties, injuries, disqualifications, appeals or cancelled sessions, and we do not use betting odds. We update this post after each remaining round.
Sources & references
We verify carrier and regulator pricing directly from primary sources before publishing. Pricing is current as of the article's last update — always confirm rates on the carrier's site before you travel.
- World Championship Classification, Pertamina Grand Prix of Indonesia (11 October 2026) — MotoGP
- 2026 MotoGP championship standings — MotoGP
- Mandalika: New 2026 MotoGP World Championship standings (11 October 2026) — Crash.net
- FIM Grand Prix World Championship Regulations 2026, update 13 September 2026 — FIM
- 2026 MotoGP calendar — MotoGP
- What is a MotoGP Sprint race? — MotoGP
- Bezzecchi beats Fernandez in Mandalika as Martin returns to championship summit (11 October 2026) — MotoGP
- Martin vs Marc Marquez: a record-equalling two-point gap (13 October 2026) — MotoGP
- Media Day Dispatch: Phillip Island's final roar (22 October 2026) — MotoGP
About the author
Lotsotravel Team
The Lotsotravel editorial team writes hands-on guides for international travelers. We test eSIMs on real devices in real destinations, monitor Canadian and U.S. carrier pricing weekly, and compare coverage across local network partners before we recommend a plan. Every comparison post is updated when carriers change their rates so the numbers you read here match what you would pay today.
Last updated: October 22, 2026