Can Marco Bezzecchi Still Win the 2026 MotoGP Title? The 46-Point Gap

Yes, on paper. Marco Bezzecchi can still win the 2026 MotoGP title, but not on his own. He won the Indonesian Grand Prix on 11 October 2026 and sits third on 309, 46 points behind Jorge Martin and 44 behind Marc Marquez, with 185 left. His ceiling is 494. If Martin finished second to him in all ten remaining races, Martin would reach 500.

What does Bezzecchi need to win the title?

Marco Bezzecchi needs to outscore Jorge Martin by 46 points and Marc Marquez by 45 over the last five rounds. That is about 9 points a weekend more than each of them, every weekend. One sprint win over a rival in second place is worth 3 of those points. A Grand Prix win over him is worth 5.

The two numbers differ because of the tie-break. The regulations of the Fédération Internationale de Motocyclisme (FIM) split a tie on points by Grand Prix wins, then second places, ignoring the sprint (article 1.28.7).

So a 46-point swing to Bezzecchi ties him with Martin and almost always wins it. Against Marquez, 44 only ties, and he needs 45 to be sure.

Does Bezzecchi control his own title chances?

No. Even a perfect run is not enough on its own. If Bezzecchi wins all five sprints and all five Grands Prix, he finishes on 494. Martin, finishing second every time, would add 145 and reach 500. Marquez would reach 498.

For Bezzecchi to win from a perfect run, Martin must add no more than 139 points and Marquez no more than 141. That means Martin has to drop at least 6 points from a perfect runner-up run, and Marquez at least 4. One Grand Prix third place instead of second costs 4. So Bezzecchi has to win a lot, and both riders ahead of him have to slip as well.

When could Bezzecchi be mathematically eliminated?

Bezzecchi can be eliminated after Sepang on 1 November at the earliest. After Sepang 111 points remain. He is out if Martin has outscored him by 66 or more across Phillip Island and Sepang. For Marquez the figure is 68. Each rival can score 74 at most in those two weekends.

The bar drops fast after that. At Lusail on 8 November, a 29-point swing to Martin over three weekends would do it, or 31 to Marquez. At Portimao on 22 November, he must have closed at least 9 points on Martin and 8 on Marquez to reach Valencia alive.

When is the earliest Bezzecchi could win the title?

The earliest Bezzecchi could win the 2026 title is Portimao on 22 November. After Portimao 37 points remain, so he would need a lead of 38 or more over every rival. From 46 behind, that means outscoring Martin by 84 and Marquez by 82 across four weekends, out of 148 on offer.

Lusail is too early for him. Even six straight wins from Phillip Island to Lusail would give him a 65-point lead at most over Martin, with 74 still left.

How did Bezzecchi win in Indonesia?

Bezzecchi crashed out of Saturday's sprint at Turn 1 and won on Sunday. The sprint report has him falling alongside polesitter Raul Fernandez. In the Grand Prix, he led Fernandez by 3.3 seconds on the final lap and won, his first win since the Italian Grand Prix at Mugello.

He took 25 points to Martin's 22 and Marquez's 22, so the gap to the lead shrank by 3. He has 11 Grand Prix podiums this season, more than any other rider, but he has not won a sprint. Sprint points are where Martin and Marquez have built their lead: Marquez has eight sprint wins and Martin four.

motogp.com's preview calls it a three-rider fight with five rounds left, and Bezzecchi is the third rider.

Who else can still win the 2026 MotoGP title?

Eight riders are still mathematically alive. Francesco Bagnaia is out: his best possible total is 351, below Martin's current 355.

The long shots, and when each can drop out, are on our who can still win the 2026 MotoGP championship page.

Which round could decide it?

Each row shows the points still on offer after that round. A rider who trails by more than that number is out.

Phillip Island is the last MotoGP visit to the circuit before the Australian round moves to Adelaide, per motogp.com's media day report.

What does this maths leave out?

The numbers here count points and nothing else. They do not forecast pace, tyre life or whether Aprilia asks either rider to help the other, and they carry no odds. A penalty, an injury or a cancelled race would change them, and we would rerun them if one happened. The full method sits in the methodology note below.

Lotsotravel is an independent travel eSIM provider. Portimao and Valencia fall a week apart, and one Europe plan covers both Portugal and Spain. The QR code arrives by email and on the website, with no app to install.