McLaren cannot win the 2026 constructors' championship. They have 365 points and can reach 537 at most, while Mercedes already have 630. The fight McLaren are still in is for third, and it turned against them in Mexico City: they arrived level with Red Bull and left 17 points behind.
Key takeaways
- McLaren are out of the title: 365 points, 265 behind Mercedes, 537 at best.
- They are 17 behind Red Bull for third, after the teams went into Mexico City level on 355.
- McLaren need 18 more points than Red Bull over four races. A tie goes to Red Bull on wins.
- Replaying this season's results, McLaren finish third in 18.9% of run-ins.
- Red Bull have outscored McLaren in each of the last five Grands Prix.
Why can McLaren not win the constructors' title?
A team can score at most 43 points in each of the four remaining Grands Prix, 172 in all. Added to 365, that makes 537, which is 93 short of Mercedes' current total. McLaren were 252 behind with 215 left going into Mexico City, so the title was already gone before that race.
| Team | Points | Behind Mercedes | Best possible total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mercedes | 630 | 802 | |
| Ferrari | 504 | 126 | 676 |
| Red Bull | 382 | 248 | 554 |
| McLaren | 365 | 265 | 537 |
What do McLaren need to finish third?
Eighteen more points than Red Bull over the last four races. A 17-point swing would leave the teams level, and countback goes to Grand Prix wins, where Red Bull have 3 to McLaren's 2. If McLaren win a race along the way, that count can change.
Eighteen points is a lot to find in four races, but not out of reach. McLaren outscored Red Bull in 7 of this season's 19 Grands Prix, and their four best races against Red Bull, added together, gained 81, per the season results. The problem is recent form: Red Bull have outscored McLaren in each of the last five, by 33, 25, 4, 7 and 17 points.
| Team | Points | Finishes 3rd | Finishes 4th |
|---|---|---|---|
| Red Bull | 382 | 81.1% | 18.9% |
| McLaren | 365 | 18.9% | 81.1% |
The replay model repeats this season's 19 Grands Prix in every combination over the last four races, 130,321 run-ins in all, with each team scoring what it scored on the day.
What went wrong in Mexico City?
A penalty made it worse. Lando Norris finished fifth, and Oscar Piastri crossed the line seventh but was given a 10-second penalty for his collision with Arvid Lindblad, which dropped him to 13th and out of the points, per the official classification. That left McLaren 10 points. Red Bull scored 27, 25 from Max Verstappen's win and 2 from Isack Hadjar in ninth.
The wider pattern is McLaren's form. Over the last five Grands Prix they averaged 11.6 points a race, the lowest of the top four teams. Red Bull averaged 28.8. That run includes Baku, one of three Grands Prix this season, with China and Canada, where McLaren scored no points.
| Team | Points per Grand Prix, season | Points per Grand Prix, last five |
|---|---|---|
| Red Bull | 19.1 | 28.8 |
| McLaren | 16.4 | 11.6 |
Can McLaren catch Ferrari?
No, not realistically. Ferrari are 139 ahead in second. McLaren's four best races against Ferrari this season, added together, gained 53, and Ferrari finish second in every replayed run-in. Norris is sixth in the drivers' standings on 221 and Piastri seventh on 144. Norris's own fight is on Lando Norris's title page.
The full team table is on who can still win the 2026 constructors' championship, and Red Bull's side of the fight for third is on can Red Bull still win the constructors' title.
Which races are left?
Four Grands Prix, per the official 2026 calendar: Sao Paulo on 8 November, Las Vegas on 21 November, Qatar on 29 November and Abu Dhabi on 6 December. Each guide covers session times, getting to the circuit and the eSIM plan for the trip.
Lotsotravel is an independent travel eSIM provider, and the race guides are our own. The box below has the plan for the next race, or a 2027 trip planner to see Norris race next year.
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Frequently asked questions
Can McLaren still win the 2026 constructors' championship?+
Can McLaren still finish third?+
What do McLaren need to beat Red Bull?+
Why did McLaren fall behind Red Bull?+
How has McLaren's form been?+
Methodology
How we did this comparison
This post calculates constructors' championship points only. The base is the constructors' standings after round 18 (the United States Grand Prix, 25 October 2026) in the Jolpica F1 database, which include sprint points, plus the official Mexico City Grand Prix classification on formula1.com (1 November 2026): Mercedes 630, Ferrari 504, Red Bull 382, McLaren 365. Those totals match the formula1.com team standings after Mexico City. That result includes the stewards' post-race time penalties to Oscar Piastri, Franco Colapinto and Pierre Gasly. Per-race team scores and win counts come from the 2026 Grand Prix classifications in the Jolpica F1 database, plus the official Mexico City result.
Four Grands Prix remain. Each car scores 25-18-15-12-10-8-6-4-2-1, so a team can take at most 43 points from a race and 172 from the four, with no sprints and no fastest-lap point left. We break ties on countback, most first places by either car, then most second places, and so on, the same rule the drivers' championship uses.
The chances come from a replay model built only from this season's results: each remaining race is treated as a repeat of one of the 19 Grands Prix run so far, picked at random with equal weight, and every team scores what it scored that day. All 130,321 possible run-ins are played to the end. Every figure was computed by script. We do not predict car pace, reliability, penalties or cancelled races, and we do not use betting odds.
Sources & references
We verify carrier and regulator pricing directly from primary sources before publishing. Pricing is current as of the article's last update — always confirm rates on the carrier's site before you travel.
- 2026 Constructors' Standings — Formula 1
- 2026 Drivers' Standings — Formula 1
- Formula 1 Gran Premio de la Ciudad de Mexico 2026 race result — Formula 1
- 2026 constructor standings — Jolpica F1
- 2026 season race results — Jolpica F1
- F1 Schedule 2026 — Formula 1
About the author
Lotsotravel Team
The Lotsotravel editorial team writes hands-on guides for international travelers. We test eSIMs on real devices in real destinations, monitor Canadian and U.S. carrier pricing weekly, and compare coverage across local network partners before we recommend a plan. Every comparison post is updated when carriers change their rates so the numbers you read here match what you would pay today.
Last updated: November 2, 2026