Red Bull cannot win the 2026 constructors' championship. They have 382 points and can reach 554 at most, and Mercedes already have 630. What Red Bull can still win is third place: they lead McLaren by 17 points after Max Verstappen won in Mexico City, and over the last five races no team has scored more.
Key takeaways
- Red Bull are out of the title: 382 points, 248 behind Mercedes, 554 at best.
- They lead McLaren by 17 for third. The teams were level on 355 before Mexico City.
- Replaying this season's results, Red Bull finish third in 81.1% of run-ins and fourth in 18.9%.
- Red Bull have outscored McLaren in each of the last five Grands Prix.
- Second is out of practical reach: 122 behind Ferrari.
Why can Red Bull not win the constructors' title?
Four Grands Prix are left, and a team scores at most 43 points in each, so Red Bull can add 172 at most. That makes 554, well short of the 630 Mercedes already have. Red Bull were 252 points behind with 215 left going into Mexico City, so they were already out before Verstappen's win there.
| Team | Points | Behind Mercedes | Best possible total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mercedes | 630 | 802 | |
| Ferrari | 504 | 126 | 676 |
| Red Bull | 382 | 248 | 554 |
| McLaren | 365 | 265 | 537 |
Can Red Bull beat McLaren to third?
They are favourites. Red Bull and McLaren went into Mexico City level on 355. Verstappen's win brought in 25 points and Isack Hadjar added 2 in ninth. McLaren scored 10: Lando Norris was fifth, and Oscar Piastri, who crossed the line seventh, dropped to 13th with a 10-second penalty for his collision with Arvid Lindblad, per the official classification. That left Red Bull 17 ahead.
| Team | Points | Finishes 3rd | Finishes 4th |
|---|---|---|---|
| Red Bull | 382 | 81.1% | 18.9% |
| McLaren | 365 | 18.9% | 81.1% |
The replay model repeats this season's 19 Grands Prix in every combination over the last four races, 130,321 run-ins in all. Red Bull outscored McLaren in 12 of those 19 races, and after replaying just Sao Paulo, Red Bull are still ahead in 16 of the 19 outcomes.
A tie on points would go to countback, where Red Bull lead on Grand Prix wins, 3 to 2.
Is Red Bull's form good enough?
It is the best in Formula 1 right now. Over the last five Grands Prix, Baku, Sepang, Singapore, Austin and Mexico City, Red Bull scored 28.8 points a race, more than Ferrari (26.6), Mercedes (24.4) or McLaren (11.6). They outscored McLaren in all five, by 33, 25, 4, 7 and 17 points, per the season results.
The early season is why that form has not lifted them higher. Across all 19 Grands Prix Red Bull have averaged 19.1 points a race, against Mercedes' 29.7.
Can Red Bull catch Ferrari for second?
Not realistically. Ferrari are 122 points ahead. Red Bull's four best races against Ferrari this season, added together, gained 47, and in the replay model Ferrari finish second in every run-in. If Ferrari outscore Red Bull by 8 or more in Sao Paulo, the lead becomes bigger than the points left and second is gone for Red Bull.
Where does Verstappen fit in?
Verstappen has 261 of Red Bull's 382 points and all three of the team's Grand Prix wins. He is also second in the drivers' standings, 2 points ahead of Lewis Hamilton, in a fight covered on Verstappen's title page. Every point he scores in that fight also counts for Red Bull against McLaren.
The full team table is on who can still win the 2026 constructors' championship, and McLaren's side of the fight for third is on can McLaren still win the constructors' title.
Which races are left?
Four Grands Prix, per the official 2026 calendar: Sao Paulo on 8 November, Las Vegas on 21 November, Qatar on 29 November and Abu Dhabi on 6 December. Each guide covers session times, getting to the circuit and the eSIM plan for the trip.
Lotsotravel is an independent travel eSIM provider, and the race guides are our own. The box below has the plan for the next race, or a 2027 trip planner to see Verstappen race next year.
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Frequently asked questions
Can Red Bull still win the 2026 constructors' championship?+
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Methodology
How we did this comparison
This post calculates constructors' championship points only. The base is the constructors' standings after round 18 (the United States Grand Prix, 25 October 2026) in the Jolpica F1 database, which include sprint points, plus the official Mexico City Grand Prix classification on formula1.com (1 November 2026): Mercedes 630, Ferrari 504, Red Bull 382, McLaren 365. Those totals match the formula1.com team standings after Mexico City. That result includes the stewards' post-race time penalties to Oscar Piastri, Franco Colapinto and Pierre Gasly. Per-race team scores and win counts come from the 2026 Grand Prix classifications in the Jolpica F1 database, plus the official Mexico City result.
Four Grands Prix remain. Each car scores 25-18-15-12-10-8-6-4-2-1, so a team can take at most 43 points from a race and 172 from the four, with no sprints and no fastest-lap point left. We break ties on countback, most first places by either car, then most second places, and so on, the same rule the drivers' championship uses.
The chances come from a replay model built only from this season's results: each remaining race is treated as a repeat of one of the 19 Grands Prix run so far, picked at random with equal weight, and every team scores what it scored that day. All 130,321 possible run-ins are played to the end. Every figure was computed by script. We do not predict car pace, reliability, penalties or cancelled races, and we do not use betting odds.
Sources & references
We verify carrier and regulator pricing directly from primary sources before publishing. Pricing is current as of the article's last update — always confirm rates on the carrier's site before you travel.
- 2026 Constructors' Standings — Formula 1
- 2026 Drivers' Standings — Formula 1
- Formula 1 Gran Premio de la Ciudad de Mexico 2026 race result — Formula 1
- 2026 constructor standings — Jolpica F1
- 2026 season race results — Jolpica F1
- F1 Schedule 2026 — Formula 1
About the author
Lotsotravel Team
The Lotsotravel editorial team writes hands-on guides for international travelers. We test eSIMs on real devices in real destinations, monitor Canadian and U.S. carrier pricing weekly, and compare coverage across local network partners before we recommend a plan. Every comparison post is updated when carriers change their rates so the numbers you read here match what you would pay today.
Last updated: November 2, 2026